Covid 19 Could Be Around Longer Than Expected

Among the many prescriptions for President Donald Trump who was infected with Covid-19 was Vitamin D. There is some uncertainty among doctors regarding the effectiveness of Vitamin D is fighting Covid-19 but those treating the President must have thought it necessary to prescribe it. As the number of deaths from Covid-19 exceeds 1 million, there has been many studies into the effectiveness of different drugs used for treating those infected. For now, it appears that certain treatments for Covid-19 had been effective in bringing down the death rate considerably.

However, for many people, their hope hinges on the Covid-19 vaccines. There is much anticipation that a Covid-19 vaccine could be ready before the US Presidential election in November. Somehow these people think that once the vaccine is available, Covid-19 would immediately be under control.

However the reality is very different. For a start, the proportion of Americans against the idea of vaccinating themselves against the virus is significant. There is talk of as many as 50 percent of them would not want to be vaccinated at all. In the Philippines, a similarly high percentage displayed such misgivings regarding vaccinations. Also in Europe, there is a significant proportion of those who are against it. So too in places like Pakistan.

With such a situation, even if all of the those willing to be vaccinated are, its effectiveness would be greatly undermined.  In reality, it would take considerable time for those willing to actually be able to access the vaccines. Furthermore there is a likelihood that the vaccine had to be transported via a cold chain for maximum potency. While most developed countries have no problems with a good cold chain system, the same cannot be said for the less developed countries. Furthermore, it would take some time for the vaccines to be manufactured and distributed. Thus there would be a significant period of time before all who wanted to be vaccinated are able to be.

What does this all have to do with startups? Earlier, many entrepreneurs had expected that things would start to get back to normal once the Covid-19 vaccine was available. As explained, this does not seem to be the case. In all likelihood, the recovery of economies of most countries would be sluggish, at best. To tackle the sluggishness, many developed and even the less developed countries would be dipping into their reserves or borrowing to spend on stimuli to boost their economies. Such moves would likely increase the money supply tremendously while central banks worldwide continue to further reduce interest rates.

With such a scenario, entrepreneurs should continue to prod cautiously with their startup plans. Earlier there were some initial signs of economies recovering as lockdowns ease in many countries. However this was probably a case of some pent-up demand due to the earlier lockdowns. Even if the lockdowns ease considerably, it is unlikely that this rise in demand could be sustained over time. It would take a while for the surge in unemployment, eased by government handouts, to recover as job creation rises slowly. At this point in time, it is difficult to see if the light at the end of the tunnel is really the desired outcome or worse, an incoming train.